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TABLE OF CONTENTS

1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .............................................................................................................................. 1

2. BACKGROUND

2.1 INTRODUCTION
2.2 STUDY METHODOLOGY .......................................................................................................................... 7
2.3 SERVICES AND APPLICATIONS.............................................................................................................. 8
2.4 SERVICE CATEGORIES ............................................................................................................................. 8
2.4.1 Service Diagrams......................................................................................................................................... 11
2.4.2 Mapping Services to Business Models. ........................................................................................................ 12
2.5 BUSINESS MODELS AND SERVICE CATEGORIES ............................................................................... 16

3. PERSPECTIVES ON INDUSTRY STRUCTURE....................................................................................... 18

3.1 EVOLVING INDUSTRY STRUCTURE ....................................................................................................... 18
3.1.1 Voice-only Service – An Historic Perspective ............................................................................................... 18
3.1.2 Today’s Environment .................................................................................................................................... 19
3.1.3 Tomorrow’s Environment .............................................................................................................................. 20
3.1.4 Access and Portal Focused Approaches ....................................................................................................... 23
3.2 MAPPING THE SERVICES UNIVERSE....................................................................................................... 24
3.3 SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS.................................................................................................................. 28

4. SERVICE DEFINITIONS AND ANALYSIS ............................................................................................... 29

4.1 MOBILE INTERNET ACCESS (CONSUMER)............................................................................................ 29
4.1.1 Enabling Factors ........................................................................................................................................... 30
4.1.2 Implications .................................................................................................................................................. 31
4.2 MULTIMEDIA MESSAGING SERVICE (BUSINESS) ............................................................................... 32
4.2.1 Enabling Factors .......................................................................................................................................... 34
4.2.2 Implications ................................................................................................................................................. 34
4.3 LOCATION-BASED SERVICES (COMBINED CONSUMER AND BUSINESS) .................................... 35
4.3.1 Enabling Factors .......................................................................................................................................... 40
4.3.2 Implications ................................................................................................................................................. 40
4.4 RICH VOICE AND SIMPLE VOICE (COMBINED CONSUMER AND BUSINESS)............................... 41
4.4.1 Enabling Factors ......................................................................................................................................... 43
4.4.2 Implications ................................................................................................................................................. 44

5. ADDITIONAL 3G SERVICE FORECASTS............................................................................................... 45

5.1 WORLDWIDE MARKET SIZE ................................................................................................................... 45
5.2 MOBILE INTERNET ACCESS (CONSUMER).......................................................................................... 47
5.2.1 Regional Forecasts ..................................................................................................................................... 48
5.3 MULTIMEDIA MESSAGING SERVICE (BUSINESS) ............................................................................... 49
5.3.1 Regional Forecasts ...................................................................................................................................... 51
5.4 LOCATION-BASED SERVICES ................................................................................................................ 51
5.4.1 Regional Forecasts ..................................................................................................................................... 53
5.5 RICH AND SIMPLE VOICE ...................................................................................................................... 54
5.5.1 Regional Forecasts ..................................................................................................................................... 55
5.6 SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS............................................................................................................... 57

6. TOTAL 3G SERVICE REVENUES ........................................................................................................... 58

6.1 WORLDWIDE FORECASTS FOR ALL 3G SERVICES – 2001-2010 ...................................................... 58
6.1.1 Analysis by Incremental Revenues and ARPU.............................................................................................. 64
6.1.2 Analysis of Consumer and Business Segments ............................................................................................. 66
6.1.3 Analysis by Consumer and Business Subscribers.......................................................................................... 67
6.1.4 Analysis for the Portal Focused Approach.................................................................................................... 68
6.1.5 Analysis for an Access Focused Approach................................................................................................... 69
6.1.6 Analysis of Voice and Data ......................................................................................................................... 70
6.1.7 Analysis by Revenue Type .......................................................................................................................... 71
6.1.8 3G Penetration Scenario Analysis ............................................................................................................... 72
6.2 REGIONAL FORECASTS FOR ALL 3G SERVICES – 2001-2010........................................................... 74
6.2.1 Asia Pacific Demand................................................................................................................................... 77
6.2.2 European Demand...................................................................................................................................... 80
6.2.3 North American Demand ........................................................................................................................... 82
6.2.4 Rest of World Demand............................................................................................................................... 84
6.2.5 Latin American Demand ............................................................................................................................. 86
6.2.6 Developing and Emerging Economies Demand ........................................................................................... 88
6.3 SUMMARY OF KEY FINDINGS.............................................................................................................. 89
6.4 IMPLICATION ...........................................................................................................................................90

7. CONCLUSI ..................................................................................................................................................91

8. UMTS FORUM RECOMMENDATIONS ........................................................................................ 92

9. LIST OF ACRONYMS.................................................................................................................... 93

10. BIBLIOGR .................................................................................................................................................94
11. INDEX ....................................................................................................................................................... 96
12. APPENDIX A – INTERVIEWS ....................................................................................................... 98
13. APPENDIX B – MARKET STUDY PROJECT TEAM CONTRIBUTORS...................................... 99
14. APPENDIX C – REMAINING SERVICES COUNTRY-LEVEL REGIONAL REVENUE